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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

However this year's field is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still